Warning intelligence, every morning, before it's news.

A daily Warning Intelligence Running Estimate (WIRE) on four topics, with a crisis-level dashboard, falsifiable predictions, and a public record of whether they came true.

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Built by a former intelligence analyst. Sourced from open reporting only and written in ICD-203 estimative language.

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What you get

Four topics, each scored against its own indicators and statements of normalcy, in one brief you can read in about 10 minutes.

Widespread war in the Middle East

Hormuz shipping, Houthi and Saudi fronts, US force posture, Iran–Israel exchanges, and energy prices.

Russian aggression

Strikes on Ukraine, spillover onto NATO territory, hybrid activity, the negotiation track, and strategic signaling.

US midterm results

The election process itself: federal posture, litigation, certification, and how results are accepted. No partisan picks.

Bitcoin

Drawdown, ETF flows, leverage and liquidations, and the macro and rates picture.

BLUF and dashboard. The bottom line first, then a crisis level and trend for each topic.

Predictions ledger. New dated calls with probabilities and resolution criteria, plus a check on open ones.

Orthodox note. A short note on contemporary Orthodox commentary from Mount Athos and Greece.

Sample dashboard

From the 15 October 2026 brief (as of 0715 EDT).

No CrisisEnvironment for CrisisPotential CrisisProbable CrisisImminent Crisis

TOPIC	CRISIS LEVEL	DOMINANT INDICATOR	TREND
Widespread war (Israel-originated)	PROBABLE	Extreme	↑
Russian aggression	POTENTIAL	Significant	↑
US midterm results	ENVIRONMENT	Significant	=
Bitcoin	ENVIRONMENT	Abnormal	↑

↑ = trending toward crisis, ↓ = away from crisis, = = no net change. Indicators are scored Routine, Abnormal, Significant, or Extreme.

How predictions are scored

If a call can't be wrong, it isn't analysis. Each prediction is logged before the event it covers.

Logged with a date. Each call gets an ID, a probability, and a resolve-by date.
Clear criteria. It states in advance exactly what counts as a hit, e.g. "FOMC raises the target range at the 27–28 Oct meeting: 35%."
Resolved on the record. Hits and misses are both published, and calls are never edited after they're logged.
Scored for calibration. Brier scores, plus calibration buckets that check whether 70% calls come true about 70% of the time.

Track record: none yet, honestly.
The ledger opened in October 2026. Predictions are open, but none has reached its resolution date, so there is no accuracy rate to report. The public record will start with the first resolved calls, misses included.

Read a sample brief

WIRE Daily Brief, 15 October 2026
The full edition: BLUF, dashboard, topic sections, indicator table, prediction ledger, gaps, and sources.

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